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Op-Ed Contributor

Susan Rice: Trump Is Making China Great Again

观点

特朗普亚洲行:让中国恢复伟大荣光

President Trump’s recently concluded trip to Asia had the potential to advance important American security and economic interests. Played correctly, his ambitious five-country, 12-day trip could have steadied his administration’s rocky start in this vital region. Instead, it left the United States more isolated and in retreat, handing leadership of the newly christened “Indo-Pacific” to China on a silver platter.

特朗普总统刚刚结束了本可能维护美国重要安全与经济利益的亚洲之行。如果操作得当,这次雄心勃勃,历时12天的五国访问本可能改善他的政权在这个重要地区困难重重的开局。然而与此相反,此次访问让美国更加孤立、退让,把新命名的“印度太平洋”(Indo-Pacific)地区的领导权拱手让给了中国。

The trip began with solid performances in Japan and Korea, where Mr. Trump’s relatively measured words left key allies reassured of the United States’ commitment to their security. The president largely shelved his belligerent trade rhetoric, called for allies to buy more American military hardware and reopened the door to diplomacy with North Korea. Weather curtailed his surprise trip to the Korean Demilitarized Zone, but that may have been a blessing, since hostile words might have prompted hostile action.

访问之初,特朗普在日本和朝鲜半岛的表现还算得体,他的措辞相对慎重,让主要盟友们相信美国会坚守对他们的安全承诺。总统在很大程度上收起了贸易方面的好斗言论,呼吁盟国购买更多的美国军事装备,重启与朝鲜外交谈判的大门。由于天气原因,他取消了对朝鲜半岛非军事区的意外访问,但这可能是一件幸事,因为敌对的言论可能引发敌对的行动。

But in China, the wheels began to come off his diplomatic bus. The Chinese leadership played President Trump like a fiddle, catering to his insatiable ego and substituting pomp and circumstance for substance.

但是来到中国,他的外交手段就开始失灵了。中国领导人将他玩弄于股掌之间,迎合他贪得无厌的虚荣心,用排场和仪式替代实质性内容。

周一,特朗普总统在访问亚洲的最后一站会见了菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特地。

Doug Mills/The New York Times

周一,特朗普总统在访问亚洲的最后一站会见了菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特地。

China always prefers to couch state visits in ceremony rather than compromise on policy. This approach seemed to suit President Trump just fine, as he welcomed a rote recitation of China’s longstanding rejection of a nuclear North Korea and failed to extract new concessions or promises. He also settled for the announcement of $250 billion in trade and investment agreements, many of which are nonbinding and, in the words of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, “pretty small.” Missing were firm deals to improve market access or reduce technology-sharing requirements for American companies seeking to do business in China.

中国一向喜欢用仪式来招待国宾,而不是用政策上的妥协。这种手段似乎很适合对特朗普总统使用,他欣然接受了中国始终反对朝鲜拥有核武器的陈词滥调,却没有从中国那里获得任何新的让步或承诺。他满足于宣布达成了2500亿美元的贸易和投资协议,其中很多都不具有约束力,用国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)的话说,成就“相当小”。他并没有帮助那些寻求在中国开展业务的美国公司促成明确协议,改善市场准入,或降低技术共享要求。

Mr. Trump showered President Xi Jinping of China with embarrassingly fawning accolades, calling him “a very special man” and stressing that “my feeling towards you is an incredibly warm one.” He blamed his predecessors rather than China for our huge trade deficits and hailed Mr. Xi’s consolidation of authoritarian power. Such scenes of an American president kowtowing in China to a Chinese president sent chills down the spines of Asia experts and United States allies who have relied on America to balance and sometimes counter an increasingly assertive China. Their collective dismay was only heightened by Mr. Trump’s failure to mention publicly any concerns about the disputed South China Sea or even to insist that the American press be allowed to ask the leaders questions.

特朗普向中国国家主席习近平献上了一堆令人尴尬的恭维,称他是“一个非常了不起的人”,并强调“我对你的感觉特别温暖”。他将巨大的贸易逆差归咎于自己的那些前任,而不是中国,还赞扬习近平巩固了威权统治。一位美国总统在中国向中国国家主席卑躬屈膝,这样的场面令亚洲专家和美国盟友感到失望透顶。面对日益专断的中国,盟国们本来指望美国能发挥平衡作用,甚至有时同中国对抗。特朗普没有公开对南海争端表示担忧,甚至没有坚决要求允许美国媒体向两位领导人提问,这更加剧了盟国的集体沮丧。

According to Mr. Tillerson, these stunning displays of Trumpian affection for Mr. Xi were complemented by more concrete discussions behind closed doors. With the notable exception of climate change, the administration wisely seems to have committed to continue cooperation with China in several key areas. But intensive diplomacy in the run-up to these critical leader-level meetings could have yielded real results to advance mutual interests and bypass the Chinese penchant for show over substance. This time, it is unclear whether such diplomacy was undertaken, and the result is that no new policy ground appears to have been broken.

蒂勒森称,除了对习近平表达惊人的喜爱之情,特朗普还与他在私下里进行了更具体的讨论。虽然显然没有提到气候变化,本届政府似乎明智地承诺在几个关键领域继续与中国保持合作。但是,如果在关键领导人级别会晤之前的预备阶段集中进行相关外交活动,本可能产生实质性结果,推进共同利益,避开中国重排场、轻实质的倾向。这一次,不清楚特朗普政府是否事先开展了这种外交,反正最后结果是没有获得任何新的政策突破。

By contrast, President Barack Obama sent his national security advisers to China before summit meetings. In 2014, we agreed on military confidence-building measures, cooperation to fight Ebola, extended visa validity and a historic United States-China deal on climate change, which led to the Paris Agreement. In 2015, we secured agreement from China to curtail cybertheft of United States intellectual property for commercial gain and to cooperate on development and global health security. In 2016, China stepped up its commitment to crack down on fentanyl precursors, support United Nations peacekeeping and strengthen nuclear security.

相比之下,贝拉克·奥巴马总统曾在中美峰会之前派他的国家安全顾问前往中国。2014年,我们就军事互信措施、抗击埃博拉病毒合作,以及延长签证有效期达成了共识,还在气候变化问题上达成了历史性协议,它最终促成了《巴黎协定》(Paris Agreement)。2015年,我们与中国达成协议,打击为获取商业利益在网上窃取美国的知识产权,在发展和全球卫生安全方面进行合作。2016年,中国提高了自己对打击芬太尼前体、支持联合国维和行动,以及强化核安全的承诺。

President Trump’s last stops in Vietnam and the Philippines proved the most problematic. At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting, he delivered a vitriolic, nationalistic speech on trade that made the United States look angry and rendered us more isolated. He made no progress toward the bilateral trade agreements he says he wants to replace multilateral deals.

特朗普总统在越南和菲律宾这最后两站的表现被证明是问题最大的。在亚太经合组织(APEC)峰会上,他就贸易问题发表了一场充满民族主义情绪的尖刻演讲,让美国显得怒气冲冲,也让我们变得更加孤立。他没有在双边贸易协定方面取得任何进展——他说他希望用双边协定取代多边协定。

Instead, the leaders of the 11 remaining Trans-Pacific Partnership countries announced a framework to remake their deal without the United States, leaving America outside the largest trade agreement in the world — one that the United States had previously championed to solidify its economic and strategic leadership in the region. Notably, President Xi followed Mr. Trump’s hostile speech with a paean to open markets, fair commerce and the benefits of globalization, ideas that might have been cribbed from previous American presidents.

相反,《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership)剩余11个国家的领导人宣布了一个框架,在没有美国的情况下重新签订协议,导致美国被排除在世界上最大的贸易协定之外——这个协定本是由美国倡导,用来巩固自己在该地区的经济与战略领导地位的。值得注意的是,在特朗普发表充满敌意的演讲之后,习近平主席发表了一个赞扬开放市场、公平贸易和全球化益处的演讲——这些想法可能抄袭自美国历届总统。

Finally, the president’s always fragile self-discipline evaporated with his outlandish tweets over the weekend, including some about Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, that undercut his sober message in Seoul. So, too, Mr. Trump’s hubristic offer late in his trip to mediate China’s disputes with its neighbors in the South China Sea, his failure to mention human rights and, above all, his disturbing defense of Vladimir Putin’s lies about meddling in our election, combined with his insulting the United States intelligence community on foreign soil, overwhelmed any effort to assert credible American leadership.

最后,特朗普总统一贯脆弱的自制力在这个周末彻底消失了,他在Twitter上发了一堆稀奇古怪的帖子,其中一些是关于朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)的,它们削弱了他在首尔传达的那些头脑清醒的信息。还有,他在访问后期狂妄地主动提出调解中国与其邻国在南海的争端;他从未提及人权;最重要的是,他令人不安地维护了弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)在干涉美国选举方面的谎言;此外,他还在外国的土地上侮辱了美国的情报机构。总之,他没有为维护美国的实质性领导地位做出任何努力。

President Trump’s lighthearted embrace of a self-proclaimed killer, President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, was the nadir of a high-stakes trip that set back American leadership in Asia. But it was, perhaps, the perfect if unintended coda to the president’s “Make China Great Again” tour.

特朗普总统轻松愉快地拥抱自称杀手的菲律宾总统罗德里戈·杜特地(Rodrigo Duterte),是这场削弱美国在亚洲领导地位的重要访问中最糟糕的时刻。不过,它或许是这场总统在无意中“恢复中国伟大荣光”之旅的最佳一刻。

苏珊·赖斯(Susan E. Rice)曾在2013年至2017年间担任美国国家安全顾问,在2009年至2013年间任美国驻联合国大使。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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