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Vietnam, in a Bind, Tries to Chart a Path Between U.S. and China

与中国积怨千年,越南试图在中美之间谋求平衡

HANOI, Vietnam — Vietnam’s full-on war with the United States lasted a decade. Its tensions with its northern neighbor, China, have persisted for thousands of years — from a millennium of direct Chinese rule and a bloody border war in 1979 to more recent confrontations in the South China Sea.

越南河内——越南与美国的全面战争持续了十年,它与北方邻国中国的紧张关系则持续了数千年:从中国直接统治的一千年,到1979年血腥的边境战争,再到最近在南海的对抗。

If geography is destiny, then the fate of Vietnam is to be an expert in bargaining with Beijing and balancing between superpowers.

如果说地理位置决定了命运,那么越南的命运就是成为与北京谈判,乃至在超级大国之间谋求平衡的专家。

So with the rest of the world struggling to reckon with China’s assertive moves in the Pacific, the Vietnamese, hosts of this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, are offering guidance.

因此,虽然世界其他国家难以对中国在太平洋地区的强势行动做出预计,今年亚太经济合作论坛(Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation,简称APEC)的东道主越南却提供了指导意见

周五,中国国家主席习近平抵达越南岘港,参加亚太经合组织的会议。

Ye Aung Thu/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

周五,中国国家主席习近平抵达越南岘港,参加亚太经合组织的会议。

“I would like to give advice to the whole world, and especially to the United States, that you must be careful with China,” said Maj. Gen. Le Van Cuong, the retired director of the Institute of Strategic Studies at the Vietnamese Ministry of Public Security.

“我想建议全世界,尤其是美国,一定要提防中国,”越南公共安全部(Vietnamese Ministry of Public Security)战略研究所(Institute of Strategic Studies)的退休所长黎文岗(Le Van Cuong)少将说。

Like any good Communist soldier, General Cuong pays attention to the details of leaders’ abstruse speeches, and he noted that President Xi Jinping of China had referred to his homeland’s status as a “great” or “strong power” 26 times in a lengthy address last month.

和所有优秀的共产党战士一样,黎文岗会非常关注领导人深奥讲话中的细节。他指出,上个月,中国国家主席习近平在一次长时间讲话中26次使用“大国”或“强国”来形容自己国家的地位。

“Xi Jinping’s ambitions are dangerous for the whole world,” General Cuong said. “China uses its money to buy off many leaders, but none of the countries that are its close allies, like North Korea, Pakistan or Cambodia, have done well. Countries that are close to America have done much better. We must ask: Why is this?”

“习近平的野心对全世界来说都很危险,”黎文岗说。“中国用金钱收买了很多国家的领导人,但它的亲密盟国发展得都不好,比如朝鲜、巴基斯坦和柬埔寨。而那些与美国关系密切的国家,它们的发展要好得多。我们不得不问:为什么会这样?”

As with other Southeast Asian nations acutely aware that they are positioned in China’s backyard, Vietnam is worried about American inattention.

其他东南亚国家敏锐地意识到,它们已被置于中国的后院,越南也同样为美国的漫不经心而担忧。

In the name of halting Communism, the United States once sent troops to Indochina and propped up dictators elsewhere in Asia. But the American-devised security landscape also created a stable environment in which regional economies expanded.

美国曾以遏制共产主义的名义向印度支那派遣军队,在亚洲其他地方扶植独裁者。但美国设计的安全图景也为该地区的经济发展创造了一个稳定的环境。

Now, Mr. Trump’s decision to take the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, which would have given 11 other economies an alternative to a Chinese-led economic order, has left the Vietnamese feeling vulnerable.

现在,特朗普决定让美国退出“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”(Trans-Pacific Partnership,简称TPP),这令该协议的其他11个经济体有可能加入由中国主导的经济秩序,也令越南觉得没有安全感。

“As Vietnamese, we are always trying to find a way to balance China’s power,” said Nguyen Ngoc Anh, a professor at the Foreign Trade University in Hanoi. “For us, TPP isn’t just an economic issue. It’s also about geopolitics and social issues.”

“我们越南人一直在努力寻找平衡中国力量的办法,”河内外贸大学(Foreign Trade University)的教授阮玉英(Nguyen Ngoc Anh)说。“对我们来说,TPP不仅是一项经济协定。它也同地缘政治和社会问题有关。”

Ms. Anh noted that local liberals had cheered the trade pact because it would have forced Vietnam to adhere to international labor and government accountability standards that Hanoi might otherwise not meet.

阮玉英指出,TPP曾令越南的自由主义者为之振奋,因为它本可以迫使越南遵守国际劳工和政府问责标准,否则河内可能根本不会努力达到这些标准。

With the 11 other members of the pact agreeing to proceed without the United States, Washington’s withdrawal — not to mention Mr. Trump’s “America First” speech at the APEC meeting on Friday — leaves some nations wondering if their best option may be Chinese-backed trade pacts and financing deals that have fewer guarantees for workers and less official transparency.

该协议的其他11个成员国同意在美国退出的情况下继续推进,但华盛顿的退出——更别提特朗普周五在亚太经合组织(APEC)的会议上关于“美国优先”(America First)的演讲——导致有些国家开始考虑,对自己来说,最好的选择可能是加入中国支持的贸易协定和融资交易,它们对工人保障和官员透明度的要求较低。

“We are both Communist countries, but people like me in Vietnam don’t want to develop the same way that China has,” said Ms. Anh, who studied economics in Soviet-era Czechoslovakia. “We want to follow the Western-oriented way.”

“我们都是共产主义国家,但像我这样的越南人并不希望像中国那样发展,”阮玉英说。她曾在苏联时代的捷克斯洛伐克学习经济学。“我们想走西方主导的那条路。”

While the United States is the largest market for Vietnamese exports, Vietnam’s biggest trading partner is China. Yet Vietnam runs a significant trade deficit with its populous neighbor, and Vietnamese economists worry that China doesn’t play fairly.

虽然美国是越南最大的出口市场,但越南最大的贸易伙伴是中国。不过,越南与这个人口众多的邻国之间存在着严重的贸易逆差。越南的经济学家们怀疑,中国没有进行公平竞争。

“China is one of the few countries in the world that doesn’t observe international law in many areas,” said Le Dang Doanh, an influential economist who has advised members of the Vietnamese Politburo on trade.

“中国是世界上少数几个在很多领域不遵守国际法的国家之一,”颇具影响力的经济学家黎登营(Le Dang Doanh)表示。他曾就贸易问题给越南政治局的成员提供建议。

The Vietnamese watched in alarm last year when Beijing reacted to an international tribunal’s dismissal of China’s expansive claims over the South China Sea by ignoring — and even mocking — the judgment. Vietnam and four other governments have claims of their own on the resource-rich waterway that conflict with China’s.

去年,一个国际法庭驳回了中国在南海的广泛主权主张,北京无视甚至嘲笑该判决,引起了越南的警惕。越南和其他四个国家对这个资源丰富的水道提出了自己的领土主张,与中国的主张相冲突。

It is hard to overstate the level of Vietnamese antipathy toward China. In a country where public protest is rare and risky, some of the few large-scale demonstrations in Vietnam in recent years have been against the Chinese.

越南人对中国的反感程度怎么说都不为过。在这个公共抗议罕见且有风险的国家,近些年发生的少数大规模示威活动中,有一些是针对中国的

But this national aversion puts Vietnam’s leadership in a bind. It cannot ignore China’s growing economic magnetism. For many members of APEC, China now ranks as their No. 1 trading partner.

不过,国民对中国的厌恶使越南领导层陷入了困境。它不能忽视中国日益增长的经济吸引力。对亚太经合组织的很多成员来说,中国现在是它们的首要贸易伙伴。

In return for investment and project financing — roads, railways, dams, airports and colossal government buildings — leaders of regional economies are increasingly doing Beijing’s bidding.

作为对投资和项目融资的回报——公路、铁路、大坝、机场和庞大的政府大楼——这些区域经济体的领导人们正越来越多地听命于北京。

Cambodia and Laos have given crucial support for Beijing’s South China Sea claims. Thailand has complied with Beijing’s demand that it return Chinese dissidents who once counted on it as a haven.

柬埔寨和老挝对北京的南海主权主张给予了关键性支持。泰国遵从北京的要求,遣返了曾把那里当作避风港的中国异见人士。

Even the Philippines has appeared to yield, despite the fact it lodged the successful South China Sea suit at The Hague. Days before Mr. Trump’s visit to Manila this Sunday, it disclosed that President Rodrigo Duterte had ordered construction halted on a disputed sandbar in the South China Sea, a move widely regarded as intended to placate Beijing.

甚至连菲律宾似乎也屈服了,尽管它在海牙国际法庭上赢得了南海诉讼案。在特朗普周日访问马尼拉之前几天,菲律宾宣布,总统罗德里戈·杜特地(Rodrigo Duterte)已下令暂停在南海一个有争议的沙洲上施工。这一举动被普遍认为旨在平息北京的不满。

Since taking office last year, Mr. Duterte has deemed the era of American military and economic pre-eminence over, and has called China his country’s best and faithful friend. He has been rewarded with billions of dollars in infrastructure investment from Beijing.

自去年上台以来,杜特地一直认为美国占军事和经济主导地位的时代已经结束,他称中国是菲律宾最好、最忠实的朋友。他从北京获得了数十亿美元的基础设施投资。

“The U.S. has been playing catch-up to China’s charm offensive since the turn of the new century,” said Tang Siew Mun, who heads the Southeast Asia center at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, a think tank in Singapore.

“新世纪以来,美国在魅力攻势上一直落后于中国,”在新加坡智库尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究所(Southeast Asia center at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute)任主管的邓秀岷(Tang Siew Mun)说。

Vietnam, more than any other country, has grown practiced at divining when not to challenge the two Pacific powers — both of which it fought within the last half-century.

越南比任何国家都清楚什么时候该避免挑战这两个太平洋大国——它在过去的半个世纪内曾分别与两国发生过战争。

In the 1970s and 1980s, China seized spits of land in the South China Sea that Vietnam had controlled or that were unoccupied but claimed by Hanoi.

在1970和1980年代,中国在南海占领了一些由越南控制或声称拥有主权的土地。

Yet perhaps sensing an American reluctance to confront China in the South China Sea, Vietnam has declined to take China to international court, as the Philippines did, even as the Chinese have turned disputed reefs and sandbars into militarized islands.

然而,可能因为感觉到美国不愿在南海与中国对抗,尽管中国已经把有争议的礁石和沙洲变成军事化岛屿,越南却没有像菲律宾那样把中国告上国际法庭。

Chinese pressure continues, despite the United States’ supplying the Vietnamese Coast Guard with a cutter and new patrol boats.

美国为越南海岸警卫队提供了一艘巡逻舰和若干艘巡逻艇,然而来自中国的压力并没有缓解。

This year, a Spanish company with prospecting rights from Vietnam suspended drilling in an oil block off the coast of Vietnam. Beijing claims part of the waters as its own.

今年,一家从越南获取了勘探权的西班牙公司暂停了在越南近海一个石油区块的钻探。北京声称对那里的部分水域拥有主权。

In 2014, the Chinese parked a state-owned oil rig off Danang, where Mr. Trump attended the APEC summit meeting on Friday, in a forceful incursion into what Hanoi considers its territorial waters.

2014年,中国人将一座国有钻井平台停泊在了岘港附近水域,从而强行侵入了河内方面认为属于其领海的地方。特朗普上周五就在岘港参加了APEC峰会

“Living next to China, which has ambitions to become the most powerful country in the world, is not easy,” said Vo Van Tao, a popular political blogger. “To lower the heat, Vietnam needs to withdraw from areas that belong to Vietnam.”

“中国有成为世界最强国家的野心,与它比邻而居不是一件容易的事,”广受欢迎的政治博主武文曹(Vo Van Tao)说。“为了给局势降温,越南需要从属于越南的区域撤离。”

Grand strategy is beyond the worldview of Vietnamese like Do Van Duc. In 1979, he was stationed on the border with China, as part of an antiaircraft artillery unit, when hundreds of thousands of People’s Liberation Army soldiers from China flooded south.

对于像杜文德(Do Van Duc)这样越南人来说,大战略超出了他们的世界观。1979年,他所属的高射炮部队驻扎在越中边境,当时有数十万中国人民解放军士兵向南涌来。

The Vietnamese, while outmanned, put up an unexpectedly robust defense. Within a month, the Chinese, professing that they had taught the Vietnamese a lesson for interfering in regional geopolitics, withdrew.

越南人虽然在人数上不及中国,却拿出了意想不到的顽强防御。宣称给了干涉地区地缘政治的越南人一个教训后,中国人在一个月之内撤退了。

During the war with China, Mr. Duc was only 17 years old, but he came to understand one thing then that today, as a security guard living in Hanoi, he said he still clings to.

在越中战争期间,杜文德只有17岁,但他懂得了一件事,而作为一名今天生活在河内的保安,他说他仍然对此坚信不疑。

“We cannot trust the Chinese,” he said. “They are our ancient enemy, and that will not change.”

“我们不能相信中国人,”他说。“他们自古以来就是我们的敌人,那是不会改变的。”

欢迎在Twitter上关注本文作者Hannah Beech @hkbeech

Chau Doan对本文有报道贡献。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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